Mammography rates 3 years after the 2009 US Preventive Services Task Force Guidelines changes.

PURPOSE In November 2009, the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) changed its mammography recommendations from every 1 to 2 years among women age ≥ 40 years to personalized screening decisions for women age 40 to 49 years and screening every 2 years for women age 50 to 74 years. METHODS We studied mammography trends among 5.5 million women age 40 to 64 years enrolled in a large national health insurer. We used 2005 to 2009 mammography trends to predict 2012 rates. Our primary measure was the estimated difference between observed and predicted 2012 annual and biennial mammography rates. We stratified results by age group and race/ethnicity. RESULTS Among women age 40 to 49 years, 2012 mammography rates declined by 9.9% (95% CI, -10.4% to -9.3%) relative to the predicted 2012 rate. Decreases were lowest among black women (-2.3%; 95% CI, -6.3% to 1.8%) and highest among Asian women (-17.4; 95% CI, -20.0 to -14.8). Annual mammography rates among women age 50 to 64 years declined by 6.1% (95% CI, -6.5% to -5.7%) by 2012. Regarding biennial mammography rates, women age 40 to 49 years experienced a 9.0% relative reduction (95% CI, -9.6% to -8.4%). White, Hispanic, and Asian women age 40 to 49 years demonstrated similar relative reductions of approximately 9% to 11%, whereas black women had no detectable changes (0.1%; 95% CI, -4.0% to 4.3%). Women age 50 to 64 years had a 6.2% relative reduction (95% CI, -6.6% to -5.7%) in biennial mammography that was similar among white, Hispanic, and Asian women. Black women age 50 to 64 years did not have changes in biennial mammography (0.4%; 95% CI, -2.6% to 3.5%). CONCLUSION Three years after publication of the 2009 USPSTF guidelines, mammography rates declined by 6% to 17% among white, Hispanic, and Asian women but not among black women. Small reductions in biennial mammography might be an unintended consequence of the updated guidelines.